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Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management 1998;26(1): 201-. |
| 원자핵 융합 발전소의 삼중수소 유출 사고 예측 |
| 양희중 |
| 청주대학교 산업공학과 |
| Predicting the Tritium Release Accident in a Nuclear Fusion Plant |
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| ABSTRACT |
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A methodology of the safety analysis on the fusion power plant is introduced. It starts with the understanding of the physics and engineering of the plant followed by the assessment of the tritium inventory and flow rate. We a, pp.y the probabilistic risk assessment. An event tree that explains the propagation of the accident is constructed and then it is translated in to an influence diagram, that is accident is constructed and then it is translated in to an influence diagram, that is statistically equivalent so far as the parameter updating is concerned. We follow the Bayesian a, pp.oach where model parameters are treated as random variables. We briefly discuss the parameter updating scheme, and finally develop the methodology to obtain the predictive distribution of time to next severe accident. |
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