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Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management 2008;36(4): 93-. |
| VECM모형을 이용한 국내 희유금속의 수요예측모형 |
| 김홍민, 정병희 |
| 숭실대학교 산업정보시스템공학과 |
| A Study on Demand Forecasting Model of Domestic Rare Metal Using VECM model |
| Hong-Min Kim, Byung-Hee Chung |
| Department of Industrial Information System Engineering, Soongsil University |
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| ABSTRACT |
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The rare metals, used for semiconductors, PDP-LCS and other specialized metal areas necessarily, has been playing a key role for the Korean economic development. Rare metals are influenced by exogenous variables, such as production quantity, price and supplied areas. Nowadays the supply base of rare metals is threatened by the sudden increase in price. For the stable supply of rare metals, a rational demand outlook is needed. In this study, focusing on the domestic demand for chromium, the uncertainty and probability materializing from demand and price is analyzed, further, a demand forecast model, which takes into account various exogenous variables, is suggested, differing from the previously static model. Also, through the OOS(out-of-sampling) method, comparing to the preexistence ARIMA model, ARMAX model, multiple regression analysis model and ECM(Error Correction Mode) model, we will verify the superiority of suggested model in this study. |
| Key Words:
Rare Metal;Unit Root Test;ADF Test;Cointegration Test;Johansen Test;VECM; |
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