Development of Prediction Model for Churn Agents -Comparing Prediction Accuracy Between Pattern Model and Matrix Model-

An, Bong-Rak; Lee, Sae-Bom; Roh, In-Sung; Suh, Yung-Ho

Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management > Volume 42(2); 2014 > Article

Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management 2014;42(2): 221-.

대리점 이탈예측모델 개발 - 동적모델(Pattern Model)과 정적모델(Matrix Model)의 예측적중률 비교 -

안봉락¹, 이새봄¹, 노인성², 서영호²

¹경희대학교 대학원 경영학과
²경희대학교 경영대학

Development of Prediction Model for Churn Agents -Comparing Prediction Accuracy Between Pattern Model and Matrix Model-

Bong-Rak An¹, Sae-Bom Lee¹, In-Sung Roh², Yung-Ho Suh²

¹Department of Management, Graduate School, Kyung Hee University
²School of Management, Kyung Hee University

ABSTRACT

Purpose:
The Purpose of this study is to develop a model for predicting agent churn group in the cosmetics industry. We develope two models, pattern model and matrix model, which are compared regarding the prediction accuracy of churn agents. Finally, we try to conclude if there is statistically significant difference between two models by empirical study.
Methods:
We develop two models using the part of RFM(Recency, Frequency, Monetary) method which is one of customer segmentation method in traditional CRM study. In order to ensure which model can predict churn agents more precisely between two models, we used CRM data of cosmetics company A in China.
Results:
Pattern model and matrix model have been developed. we find out that there is statistically significant differences between two models regarding the prediction accuracy.
Conclusion:
Pattern model and matrix model predict churn agents. Although pattern model employed the trend of monetary mount for six months, matrix model that used the amount of sales per month and the duration of the employment is better than pattern model in prediction accuracy.

Key Words: CRM;Customer;Churn;RFM;Agent;Pattern;Matrix;Model;